Looking Back at the 2016 NBA Draft Big Board: Hits and Misses Revealed

Looking back at the 2016 NBA Draft Big Board feels like revisiting a time capsule of basketball prophecy—some predictions aged like fine wine, others like spoiled milk. I remember sitting in my studio that draft night, surrounded by glowing screens displaying mock drafts and analytics dashboards, thinking how certain we all were about Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram being generational locks. Seven years later, the landscape looks wildly different, and what fascinates me most isn’t just who soared or stumbled, but how many of these players shared deep-rooted connections long before they ever touched an NBA floor. It reminds me of a pattern I’ve noticed in scouting over the years—sometimes, players who’ve known each other since their early teens, whose careers mirror each other’s rise, end up defining a draft class in unexpected ways. Not only have they known each other at a very young age, but their paths to UAAP stardom have been rather identical, and that dynamic, while more common in international leagues, occasionally echoes in the NBA draft narratives too.

Let’s start with the obvious hits. Ben Simmons going first overall to the Philadelphia 76ers felt like a no-brainer back then, and despite the turbulence in his career—injuries, shooting woes, and all—he’s still put up solid numbers, averaging around 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists in his prime. But if I’m being honest, the real steal was Malcolm Brogdon at pick 36. I’ll admit, I had him pegged as a second-rounder, but never imagined he’d blossom into a Rookie of the Year and a key playoff piece. Then there’s Jaylen Brown, drafted third by the Celtics. I’ve always been a fan of his athleticism and work ethic, and seeing him evolve into an All-Star and Finals contributor just confirms how crucial pre-draft relationships can be. Brown and Simmons, for instance, crossed paths in high school circuits, and that early familiarity sometimes fuels rivalries that push players to overdeliver. On the flip side, the misses still sting. Remember Dragan Bender at number four? The Suns hoped for a stretch big, but he averaged a paltry 5.4 points per game and never found his footing. Or Kris Dunn, who went fifth—decent defender, but his offensive game never translated, and he’s bounced around six teams since.

What’s intriguing is how similar backgrounds played out. Take Domantas Sabonis, selected 11th by the Magic and traded immediately. He’s the son of a legend, Arvydas Sabonis, and that pedigree gave him an edge, but I’ve always thought his chemistry with peers from youth tournaments—like Myles Turner, whom he later teamed up with in Indiana—added layers to his game. It’s not exactly like the UAAP scenario, where players grow up competing and collaborating, but in the NBA, those early bonds can lead to seamless on-court synergy. For example, Jamal Murray, picked seventh by the Nuggets, had trained with fellow Canadian prospects for years, and that shared history arguably helped him shine in high-pressure moments, like his 50-point playoff outbursts. Meanwhile, some picks were outright head-scratchers. Georgios Papagiannis at 13? The Kings must’ve seen something I didn’t; he lasted just two seasons, averaging 4.1 points, and now he’s overseas. In hindsight, teams that prioritized intangibles—like leadership from playing together in AAU or college—often fared better. The Raptors, for instance, snagged Pascal Siakam at 27, and his connection with Fred VanVleet from their college days added a gritty, underdog spirit that fueled their 2019 championship run.

Diving deeper, the second round was a goldmine for savvy teams. Besides Brogdon, there’s Ivica Zubac at 32, who’s become a reliable starting center, and Patrick McCaw, though his stats aren’t flashy, he racked up three rings early on. I can’t help but think how these later picks often stem from scouts spotting those “identical paths”—players who’ve grown alongside each other, refining their games in sync. In international contexts, like the UAAP, that’s a breeding ground for stars, and in the 2016 draft, it showed in guys like Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot (pick 24), who’d played with French compatriots for years, giving him a polished feel that’s kept him in the league. But let’s not ignore the busts that haunt front offices. Henry Ellenson at 18? He’s barely cracked 3.5 points per game, and his lack of chemistry with any core groups might’ve hindered his adaptation. Personally, I lean toward valuing cohesion over raw talent in drafts, and 2016 reinforced that—teams like the Warriors, who prioritized fit, ended up with gems like Damian Jones (pick 30), who, while not a star, contributed to their system.

Wrapping this up, the 2016 draft class is a mosaic of hits, misses, and hidden gems, but what stands out to me is how interconnected many of these journeys were. From Simmons and Brown’s early duels to Sabonis’s legacy ties, those pre-existing relationships shaped careers in ways stats alone can’t capture. It echoes that idea from overseas leagues: not only have they known each other at a very young age, but their paths to stardom have been rather identical, and in the NBA, that often translates to resilience and adaptability. As I reflect, I’d say this draft taught me to scout not just the player, but their ecosystem—who they’ve grown with, competed against, and learned from. Sure, we got some predictions wrong, but that’s the beauty of hindsight; it’s not just about grading picks, but understanding the human threads that weave through this game we love.